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2008 U.S. Presidential Election

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5 March 2008, 09:49 PM   #1
The Director
Joined: 3 Jun 2007
Posts: 120
This is what I've figured out so far...

1. The eventual outcome of the 2008 U.S. Presidential Election is going to be decided
at the Democratic National Convention.

It seems pretty clear that if Hilary Clintion is chosen as the Democratic nominee for
President then the majority of the population/electorate is likely to choose the
Republican John McCain for president.

Conversely, If Barack Obama is chosen as the Democratic nominee, I believe he is likely to
win the popular-electorate vote for President.

which brings us to #2

2. The Democratic National Convention is likely to be one of the biggest "disasters" in
American politics since Watergate.

Here is the current situation as it seems. Obama has a slight edge in delegates over
Clinton currently. But neither candidate can win or is likely to win the nomination
outright with the few remaining primaries & caucauses to be held.

Thus, at the DNC, there are two groups that will come into play and ultimately decide the

1. The delegates earned by John Edwards in his early primaries which had proportional
structure. I am not sure how many of these delegates there are but no one seems to know
which way they might vote. So lets say they split or don't amount to enough to decide the

2. The Super-Delegates

The super-delegates are about 90% comprised of elected officials (senators, governors,
etc.).  So far only a few have said how they would vote, but since these are all
"hard-core" democratic party big-wigs, it seems to me that they are going to lean towards
Hilary Clinton and be less swayed by Obama's charisma and more cautious about him.

I believe that unless Obama comes in with absolute momentum on his side that the
super-delegates will vote for Hilary Clinton thus giving her the nomination.

The Nightmare Scenario

The "disaster" likely to happen then is that Barack Obama may come into the the DNC having
won the actual popular vote by a significant amount and having a number of more actual
(regular) delegates representing the popular vote, but the nomination will go to Clinton
per the super-delegates.

If what I said at the start holds true, then this may in effect result in the democrats
losing the national election.

The result of all of this will be that a significant number of people will be outraged
that Obama did not get the nomination (cries of racism will no doubt be made in some
segments) and then further moaning by all democrats for losing the national election.

It could be a disaster for the democratic party in the U.S.

......even if Clinton tried to get Obama to run as Vice President (very unlikely he would
do it), it's going to be very hard for her to beat McCain in the general election.

The only chance to cut through all of this is if Obama becomes the Democratic nominee. If
he does, as I said, he is likely to beat McCain, though that's not a certainty.

It will be interesting to see how all of this plays out.

6 March 2008, 04:48 AM   #2
Guest Poster
I really, really want Obama to win. I'm not American. But I really want him to win.
Clinton is just..I dunno, so driven. In a bad way. It's like she'll stop at nothing to
become president.

6 March 2008, 02:36 PM   #3
Guest Poster
Last edited by saralyn247, 10 March 2008
If Clinton becomes president, I will probably be very tempted to shoot myself in the
face. I don't really know who I want to win though... I guess Obama is okay, but I'd
prefer a republican.

6 March 2008, 02:37 PM   #4
Guest Poster
Last edited by saralyn247, 6 March 2008
But democrats tend to care more about global warming and the environment... so I don't

8 March 2008, 09:00 PM   #5
Guest Poster
We talk about this a lot in class, so I a little about it. In the republican side, I want
John McCain. On the democratic side, I want Barack Obama. I think it's a huge step to see
a woman and an African-American running for president.

11 March 2008, 06:27 AM   #6
Guest Poster
The president is less about the guy smiling and more about the people they surround
themselves with, so just like Bush, look in the rafters for the people of dubious

Clinton -- you know what you have, she is a known quantity, and you have a fairly solid
idea of who will be there for her support. Erm, my female friends seem not to like her for
some reason she wont beat McCain

McCain -- almost a continuation of the present situation with little change in sight, the
only presidential candidate to have been a Prisoner of War and tortured at the hands of
the enemy.

Obama -- who knows, I'm just not sure

Because the American people vote for Charisma and not policy, and because this country is
so totally f'd up. I would say McCain will be the next president if for no other reason
than the Democrats seem to have no organization, cohesiveness or any idea how to get the
middle America vote

11 March 2008, 06:35 AM   #7
Guest Poster
I have to agree with Siberion.

15 November 2008, 09:55 AM    #8
Guest Poster
I 100% agree with Siberion. Good show!

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